gross domestic product: the total flow of services and goods produced by an economy over a quarter or a year, measured by the aggregate value of services and goods at market prices
Felix Salmon submits: Zubin has the quarter-by-quarter GDP chart; he, like many others, is particularly taken that in the fourth quarter of 2007, the GDP figure fell below zero. But while the Q4 revision from +0.6% to -0.2% was big, the Q2 revision from +3.8% to +4.8% was even...
Barry Ritholtz submits: We noted earlier today that the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported revised Q2 GDP data at a better-than-expected annualized 3.3%. As discussed in the comments, the measure of Inflation is crucial to getting an accurate read on GDP or Durable Goods. Say you live in...
James Hamilton submits: As Menzie explained on Monday, it isn't inflation. Since there still seems to be some controversy about this issue (e.g., Rich Karlgaard, Instapundit, and Reuters), let me take a stab at it as well. Rather than walk through the detailed...
This paper examines the effect of different kinds of investments on the business cycle. Specifically, it examines whether residential and non-residential investment Granger cause GDP, and whether GDP Granger causes each of these types of investments. The paper uses quarterly National Income and Products Data for the period 1959 to...
Felix Salmon submits: One of the bright spots in the recent GDP reports has been the productivity figures. Whenever GDP continues to grow even as employment is falling, productivity -- which is the growth in GDP per worker -- will look particularly strong. And productivity this year is rising...
Eddy Elfenbein submits: The government reported today that GDP grew by 1.89% for the second quarter. This is the sixth time in the last eight quarters that GDP growth has come in less than 2.7%. The government also revised its numbers for each quarter going back to the start...
Ron Haruni submits: Economic growth can be analyzed from several vantage points, such as the growth rates of the various GDP components or their direct contributions to growth. In this short piece we intend to focus primarily at component contributions to real GDP for the second quarter (Q2), fiscal ‘08....
To study the effects of tariffs on gross domestic product GDP, one needs import demand elasticities at the tariff line level that are consistent with GDP maximization. This paper modifies GDP function approach to estimate demand elasticities for 4,625 imported goods in 117 countries. It follows certain estimates to construct...
Menzie Chinn submits: In my previous post, I discussed how the 2008Q2 advance GDP estimate would be revised, and the possibility that the final figure after annual revisions could enter in below zero. One reason that might occur is because the GDP deflator could be revised upward. Suspicion that...
This paper reports the results of a detailed examination of the hypothesis that improved inventory management and production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth. The innovations are to look at the data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous studies, to exploit...
Ron Haruni submits: In its preliminary 2Q08 GDP estimates, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, the country’s gross domestic product was revised up at an annual rate of 3.3% for the April-June period, exceeding analysts’ initial estimates of a 1.9% increase as well as economists’ forecast of a 2.7% gain....
Menzie Chinn submits: The 1.9% SAAR growth rate in 2008Q2 [BEA] is widely viewed as a positive [0]; and the fact that GDP growth remained, in this advance release, above zero is a positive. However, when taken with the annual revision, one sees some interesting aspects. Not only was...
The OECD expects that Norwegian GDP growth, which slowed to only 0.6% in 1999, will pick up to 3.3% this year. However, growth will be chiefly confined to offshore industries. "Mainland" GDP, which excludes oil, gas and shipping, is forecas The OECD expects that Norwegian GDP...
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. To compute the quantity indexes, changes in the quantities of individual goods and...
This paper deepens the knowledge on the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product GDP and investment in the United States by including the sub-components of residential and non-residential investment into a multivariate analysis. Vector error correction methodology is used to estimate the parameters of the model and analyze the dynamics...
According to Al-Khaleej newspaper (January 3, 2006), the International Monetary Fund estimated the growth rate of India's GDP at 7.1% in 2005. The ... According to Al-Khaleej newspaper (January 3, 2006), the International Monetary Fund estimated the growth rate of India's GDP at 7.1% in...
According to Al-Rai newspaper (April 26, 2007), the International Monetary Fund IMF forecasts the GDP of Jordan to maintain its ... According to Al-Rai newspaper (April 26, 2007), the International Monetary Fund IMF forecasts the GDP of Jordan to maintain its upward trend in the upcoming...
The growth rate for inflation-adjusted real GDP slowed only a fraction in 1999, falling to 4% from 4.3% in 1998. This year, we expect another half-point slowdown in real GDP growth to 3.5%. This assumes the Fed continues with regular pinpricks, n The growth...
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. To compute the quantity indexes, changes in the quantities of individual goods and...
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